In New York, fall and winter are the busiest seasons in restaurants; as the weather cools, city dwellers love to hunch over a hot plate, and eat the chills away in warm settings awash with flattering light. Gone are the days of sidewalk and patio dining, and even though we make a habit of bitching about the cold weather, indoor dining is a welcome change.

Fall is also a season of new openings and thus an annual media feeding frenzy of roundups announcing the most anticipated new restaurants—for the most comprehensive intel on what’s on the horizon in the next few months, check out Time Out New York’s epic guide.

But while all the new menus and exclusive interior shots and cocktail-program details can be exciting, the harsh reality of the NYC restaurant scene is that most of these spots won’t make it—80% of New York restaurants close within the first five years, and some kick the bucket even quicker than that.

Half of the new places everyone’s gushing about probably won’t survive their first sleepy New York summer, but we’re willing to bet on which ones will.

Click through the gallery to find out which fall openings we think actually have staying power.